Polling suggests Opposition Leader Jess Wilson won't need One Nation's support to form government after the Victorian election. But actually getting laws passed could be a challenge.
📊 The numbers: The latest DemosAU poll, published on November 9, has the Coalition on 33 percent of the primary vote, One Nation on 21 percent and Labor on 18 percent.
Governments are formed in the lower house, but every law also has to pass the 40-member upper house, where it needs 21 votes.
One Nation currently holds one upper house seat, through Northern Victoria member Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell.
🗳️ What's changing: From this election, upper house votes only go where the voter sends them.
Under the old system (called group ticket voting), if you voted 1 for a party above the line, that party decided where your preferences went.
🔮The prediction: Former ABC election analyst Antony Green told the National Account One Nation could win eight to 10 upper house seats, the Greens six to eight, the Liberals around 14 and Labor around eight, which he described as a "very divided upper house".
He expects a Coalition government would have to rely on One Nation, Labor or the Greens to pass legislation.
🤝 Why it matters: Wilson confirmed this week the Coalition will preference One Nation ahead of Labor and the Greens.
Watch the National Account's Archie Milligan below:
Thumbnail: AAP