Australia’s AI future might depend on U.S. politics

As much as I love doing a Trump impression, talking about him in the news isn’t exactly my favourite thing.

But this one’s actually worth unpacking — even if the Australian media might be a little too obsessed with all things Trump.

🤖 What is the “Big Beautiful Bill”?

You might’ve heard Trump hyping up the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”.

It’s legislation currently being pushed in the U.S. that proposes a 10-year moratorium on state-level AI laws. 

Essentially, it means that the mega corporations behind AI - the ones that hoover up all that copyrighted material without paying for it - would continue to be able to roam through the Wild West with few checks and balances. For another 10 years.

If it goes through, it would mark a massive shift in how the U.S. handles tech regulation — and it could set the tone for how other countries, like Australia, deal with AI too.

🧠 Why it matters to Australia

To understand the implications here, I spoke to Shaanan Cohney, a lecturer at the University of Melbourne’s School of Computing and Information Systems.

Cohney says global AI development is currently dominated by the U.S., China and Europe.

If this bill becomes law, it could lead to tech companies relocating to the U.S to take advantage of lighter regulations — especially those currently operating in more tightly regulated jurisdictions.

🇦🇺 A tricky position

Cohney points out that Australia’s ability to regulate international AI companies is limited.

Trying to enforce strong AI rules here could result in us losing access to tools like ChatGPT — which are increasingly part of everyday life and business.

There’s also concern the current U.S. administration could use trade talks to pressure Australia into adopting looser rules around AI.

🏢 Who benefits from AI regulation?

Interestingly, Cohney says some forms of regulation actually benefit larger, more established companies, especially those that prioritise safety.

But here’s the catch — Australia doesn’t have much of a domestic AI industry, and we’re heavily reliant on U.S. tech.

That makes it hard for Australia to push back or demand much in return when it comes to international AI policy.

📜 Will the bill even pass?

Here’s the good news (depending on how you see it): Shaanan Cohney is sceptical that the Big Beautiful Bill will make it through Congress.

While it includes sweeping changes to AI regulation, it’s essentially a budget bill with AI rules tacked on — and that complicates things.

There are already questions over whether it meets constitutional and procedural requirements, which could stall or sink it altogether.