The Coalition and One Nation: A quiet ceasefire

🗳️ Why it matters:

The Coalition’s move to preference One Nation candidates highly on how-to-vote cards marks a major shift — and highlights the Liberal Party’s slow but steady shift further to the right.

🤨 What’s happening:

• In 139 out of 147 seats where One Nation is running, the Coalition is urging voters to preference One Nation candidates ahead of Labor.
  

• In 55 of those seats, One Nation is placed at number two on Liberal how-to-vote cards.

📠 Flashback:

• Hanson, who founded One Nation in October 1997 after being disendorsed by the Liberals, has a long record of inflammatory rhetoric — from calling for bans on Muslim immigration to making xenophobic comments about African Australians.

• In 1998, then-Prime Minister John Howard ordered that all One Nation candidates be placed last on Liberal how-to-vote cards, distancing the party from Pauline Hanson’s brand of right-wing populism.

🔎 Between the lines:

• In 2022, six out of 10 One Nation first-preference votes eventually flowed to Liberal or National candidates.
  

• Now, One Nation is also preferencing Liberals in key marginals, including Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson — a potential boost for the Coalition in tight contests.

📖 Zoom out:

• Hanson was found guilty of racial discrimination by the Federal Court after telling Greens Deputy Leader Mehreen Faruqi to “piss off back to Pakistan”.
  

• Her controversial history includes time in jail (her conviction for fraud was later overturned) and inflammatory remarks about migrants and Muslims. In her maiden speech in 1996 she said Australia was “at risk of being swamped by Asians”. She has also had a stint on Dancing with the Stars.

🌏 The big picture:

• Liberal leader Peter Dutton often says he models himself on John Howard — but this embrace of One Nation marks a clear departure from Howard’s hard line against the party.
  

• When people say the Liberal Party is shifting further right, this preferencing strategy is a clear example.

🗳️ The bottom line:

You don’t have to follow how-to-vote cards — but the Coalition’s willingness to preference One Nation shows how far it’s prepared to go to win back the government and the keys to The Lodge.