Americans give Aussie nuclear subs another green light, but are we preparing for the wrong war?

The AUKUS submarine pact is a deal by the US, UK and Australia announced in 2021, and sees the lucky country acquire nuclear-powered submarines. 

These Subs can stay underwater for far longer stints than diesel electric, only limited by the food supply they can take on board.

The first few submarines will be built by the United States and then delivered to Australia. 

In June, the Pentagon announced it would review the deal signed by the previous Biden administration to see if it met President Trump’s America First agenda, raising fears in Canberra that Australia’s $360 billion submarine plan could be delayed, scaled back, or scrapped depending on US politics.

AUKUS look likely to survive a Pentagon review. “AUKUS is safe”, an unnamed source from a member country told Nikkei Asia.

Elizabeth Buchanan, a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) told the paper it was a low-risk move for the Americans to make, as they can withhold any of the submarines they build for political, strategic, or security reasons.

US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby, who’s been in charge of the recent review into AUKUS, previously said the subs are:

“the single most important conventional military asset we have for a Taiwan fight."

But that poses the question: Is a fight over Taiwan the greatest national security risk to Australia? 

The Australian Government is yet to release a critical report from the Office of National Intelligence examining what external threats climate change will pose to Australia. Without this assessment, it's unclear whether the government is prioritising the right threats when making this enormous commitment to submarine capability.

Former Chief of the Australian Defence Force, Chris Barrie, is among defence leaders and experts who say climate change is the biggest threat to Australia’s National Security. 

Dr. Albert Palazzo, the former Director of War Studies for the Australian Army, told the National Account we’re buying the wrong kind of military equipment for the types of conflicts climate change will bring. 

Palazzo pointed out that the multibillion-dollar AUKUS Submarines can’t do much when it comes to the regional conflicts over food and resources that climate change is likely to bring.

He says the equipment that’s needed is anything that can bring troops into a warzone and get refugees out cheap Hercules planes, as well as landing craft.